#NyaDeshMubarakHo!

Dedicated to – Vinesh Phogat

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled the Simha amidst vedic chants atop the then under-construction new parliament building, I had hazarded that was perhaps the inauguration of the Second Republic.

However, Modi’s performance this Sunday suggests that the new quasi-monarchy and proto-theocratic state will date in history to the dedication to the nation of the new parliament building.

Even so, since it is predictable that the forthcoming Ayodhya temple inauguration will be an even grander event - and infinitely more saffron - declaring Hindu Rashtra could perhaps wait till that event.

For now, any claim to this effect could invite a sedition charge. So, Modi is taking his time getting there. While the last time he had bowed to the Constitution when entering Parliament, this time he prostrated himself before a scepter.  

A road bump

Even as he did so, Modi encountered an unforeseen road bump on the road to Hindutva’s Hindu Rashtra with the wrestlers’ protest at Jantar Mantar, ongoing for a month till this weekend, suddenly acquiring momentum.

Unceremoniously dislodging the wrestlers from Jantar Mantar, the Delhi Police lodged a First Information Report (FIR) against them for rioting for their bid to get to the new parliament building for a Mahila Mahapanchayat. 

The Police have so far not followed up with arresting the Wrestling Federation’s chief, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, on the two FIRs filed at Supreme Court behest, one of which is on sexual harassment of a minor. 

A hopeful perspective has it that the regime has finally overplayed its hand.

The wrestlers had originally wished to keep ‘politics’ from appropriating their cause. They suspected that if the liberals, feminists and opportunist politicians were to join them, it would be a red rag for Modi, giving him an alibi to look away. In any case, Modi proved oblivious.

With 1000 plus signatories to a condemnatory letter on police action, it appears the wrestlers might not be left to themselves hereon. Women who were turned away from the aborted Mahapanchayat at the gates of the new parliament, will also be on hand.

They’ve been joined by farmers. As the distraught wrestlers proceeded to consign their medals to the Ganga, leaders of the farmer agitation intercepted them. They’ve given the regime five days to make amends.

The wrestlers might yet take to the promised hunger strike. The Police has dismantled the protest site at Jantar Mantar. It has denied them the India Gate premises. There is the Ram Lila Maidan site available, though too reminiscent of the Anna Hazare protest for Modi’s comfort.

The farmers will likely lay siege to Delhi; not out of an intent, but because the Police will barricade Delhi. As with the Shaheen Bagh protest, the Delhi Police bandobast will be so designed that protestors are blamed.

Modi’s dilemma

Where Modi stands on sexual harassment allegations is clear.

If he had any inclination to woo the wrestlers, time sharing of the new parliament’s first day could have been done, with the wrestlers turning out in the first democratic protest outside its gates after Modi was done with his tamasha – over two sessions - inside it. A win-win solution was not to be.

Modi could yet defuse the matter from snowballing by having Brij Bhushan step down, if not arrested. Bhushan, though continuing in the chair, is keeping off his wrestling-related duties.

Modi has been proved flexible before. He rolled back the farm laws in face of an agitation. His histrionic ability can be put to good use.  

The Delhi Police already has its marching orders from the Supreme Court. They could claim that having conducted their investigation – for which they have been holding out from making arrest – they have enough prosecutable evidence.

It is easier for Modi to be rid of Brij Bhushan. The opinion of middle classes which he potentially stands to lose due to an underperforming economy might resonate to the wrestlers’ cause. The Nirbhaya case had brought them to the streets, which proved precursor for the soon-to-follow anti-corruption agitation.

It is also difficult to clamp down on the region engulfing Delhi, if the wrestlers plight catches popular imagination in these parts - as former Governor Satya Pal Malik claims.

However, compared to the votes Modi stands to lose, Brij Bhushan’s is a Rajput support base, that includes Dozer Raaj presider, Ajay Singh Bisht. Already trolls suggest that the western Ganga-belt Jats want to wrest the Federation from the eastern Ganga-belt Rajputs.

In anticipation, Brij Bhushan, has taken care to cover his flanks. He is to hold a gathering of seers at Ayodhya on 5 June.

He threatens to have the assembly upend the enlightened legislation protecting children from sexual predators. A seer has already piped up in support of such watering down of legislation, arguing that it is being used to target his ilk.

Modi can’t be seen as caving in to an agitation on the lines of an Indian version of the Woke and Western MeToo movement. A few months on he is to be the chief guest in Ayodhya for inaugurating the Mandir. More importantly, there is an election coming up same time next year.

An Indian Spring?

A recent perspective has it that anarchy prevails in the country. There are several unconnected zones of dissent bubbling away. The agitation last year at the introduction of the Agnipath scheme shows unemployed youth are restive. Evidently, there is much tinder out there, for which the wrestlers could provide a spark.

It is with reason that pedagogy on civil movements has been excised from the syllabus of political science. Modi’s security minders are wary of Colour Revolutions that have upstaged regimes elsewhere. The Arab Spring led to a coalescing of anti-establishment opinion across the Arab world. Indian security minders have drawn their lessons. The regime invective for George Soros shows as much.

Only if the wrestlers manage to spark off a sentiment in Indian public will Modi remove his patronage of Bhushan. The Intelligence Bureau and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will be able to communicate to Modi when this stage is reached.

The RSS would not like its champion going under at the cusp of Hindu Rashtra. Though miffed by Modi’s narcissism, it is tolerating it since there is no other warhorse in sight, pretenders mounted on dozers notwithstanding.

Modi’s utility for the RSS is to use his political authority to make change indelible. Threatened in Karnataka, the gains made by the regime so far cannot be allowed to be rolled back merely by the voting public exercising its choice.

Modi has not disappointed. In his Karnataka showing, he has kept his flock together, the Congress managing to poach on the regional party’s dissident voters.

Modi has unambiguously shown what New India stands for. He remains unfazed by liberal notions at odds with beliefs of his regressive client base. Political correctness may require a go-bye. Perception management needs at best a sheaf from the hoax, Mother of Democracy.  As for the mouthing, Beti Padhao-Beti Bachao, Love Jihad can be commandeered, with a little help from Sahil, son of Sarfaraz.

Modi has also to show his grip on power. This has been tested and found loose in the external plane, with both China and Pakistan stealing a march on India, the contrary being but propaganda.

Modi’s forte, from his Gujarat days, is internal intimidation. Remember former state minister, Pandya; late Central Bureau of Investigation judge, Loya; and Indian Police Service officers Bhatt, Sharma and Verma; the ongoing plight of eye-witness in the Sohrabuddin case, Azam Khan; the detention of Father Stan Swamy and his comrades; and the false cases against the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act activists.

He could use the opportunity to crack down on dissent, with a dictatorial flourish. Whereas earlier the weak and vulnerable of the marginalized were scapegoats – Muslims and, more recently, Kukis - lightning appears to have struck closer home this time.

The end justifying the means, furthering Hindutva allows for use of a heavy hand.

He may have to replicate Emergency. Unlike with the Emergency, this would not be subject to a rethink. As it is, what obtains has been characterized as an undeclared Emergency, with India topping the internet downtime charts and investigative and enforcement agencies vectored on opposition.

RSS participation through its proxies in jackboots can be expected. Videos from opposition ruled Rajasthan on training and parading around by civilian paramilitary, including women, are viral.

Black operations can serve to manufacture the enabling public consent to crimes against humanity. For illustration, take for instance, the unexplained deaths by burns in a train in Kerala by a perpetrator from the north, who reportedly had never earlier travelled South; amateurish bombs going off prematurely in Coimbatore and Mangalore, conveniently though for a diplomatic meeting on international terrorism in Bangalore; and the killing of a tailor in Udaipur by two Muslim assailants protesting the anti-Prophet invective of the ruling party spokesperson.

Could Modi’s diplomatic engagements, that can be marketed domestically for his Vishwa Guru profile, persuade Modi to get back from ‘2023 BC’? Incidentally, these include an invited state visit to Washington, DC.

International opinion is bestirring, with the international governing body of wrestling taking a view. However, Modi has Quick-Gun Jaishankar on his side, who can undo the damage on social media and YouTube.

The first hint of the regime intent is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisaton summit going online. This cannot merely be due to China and Pakistan likely staying away.

Modi also would not want an international audience have a closer exposure to domestic discord. The G20 tourism meeting at Srinagar last month that turned out a hit-wicket of sorts, was a wake-up call.

When the farmers say they will ‘do something big’, they cannot be allowed an international spotlight. Recall, the farmer agitation was a year-long. Modi needs to wrap up the matter by when the G20 top guns troop down to Delhi.

The next series of state elections is due end-year. He requires nipping it in the bud this summer, lest it queer the pitch for whats seen as a dress rehearsal for the national elections next year. If Erdogan can, Modi shall.

When the going gets tough…

The wrestlers have provided India an opportunity to cast off the Modi-induced trance. Will their agitation prove a road bump or a road block on the road to Hindu Rashtra?

There are two imponderables: one is if their agitation will take on the proportion of a movement; and, two, if the regime preemptively caves-in or takes it head-on.

Whichever way the cookie crumbles, the coming week evokes the phrase, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’